Sales Forecast Calculator
Turn a pipeline into a weighted sales forecast by stage probability, and compare it with your quota for the period. List the deals, set the stage probabilities you trust, and get commit, best case, totals by month and a CSV for your spreadsheet.
How the weighted forecast works
Each open deal counts at its amount times the probability of its stage; deals already won count in full. Say the quarter's quota is $250,000. Cobalt Labs has signed for $25,000. Acme is in negotiation for $60,000 at 70%, Birch Foods has a $40,000 proposal at 40%, Delta Freight is in discovery for $80,000 at 20% and Evergreen Homes gave a verbal yes on $30,000 at 90%.
The weighted forecast is $25,000 + $42,000 + $16,000 + $16,000 + $27,000 = $126,000, or 50.4% of quota, with a $124,000 gap. Press "Load the example" to see it in the table.
Commit, best case and pipeline
A weighted number is useful across many deals and misleading on a few, so most sales leaders also call the forecast in categories. Commit: closed won plus the deals you would stake your number on ($115,000 in the example). Best case: commit plus the deals that could land if things go well ($155,000). Pipeline: every open deal at full value ($210,000).
Each stage has a category, which you can change in the stage table. A deal moves category when it moves stage, so the categories stay tied to what has happened in the deal rather than to a feeling at the end of the quarter.
A sales forecast template you can download
If your forecast lives in Excel or Google Sheets, use this table as the template: fill it in, press "Download CSV" and open the file in your spreadsheet. Each row has the deal, amount, stage, probability, weighted value, category and close month, with the totals and the quota at the bottom.
The table is kept in this browser between visits, so you can update stages after each call and download a fresh copy before the forecast meeting.
Setting stage probabilities
The default probabilities on this page are examples, not benchmarks. Use your own history: of the deals that reached proposal in the last few quarters, what share closed? That is your proposal probability. The win rate calculator does the sum from your counts.
Use "Own %" on a deal only when you know something the stage does not say, and keep a note of why. If many deals need an override, the stages probably need new exit criteria.
Pipeline coverage
Coverage compares the open pipeline with the part of the quota still to close. In the example, $250,000 less $25,000 closed leaves $225,000 to find, and $210,000 of open pipeline is 0.93× coverage: the quarter misses even if every open deal closes. Below 1× is a pipeline problem, not a forecasting one.
How much coverage is enough depends on your win rate and cycle length, so the page shows the ratio and leaves the target to you.
Work out your stage probabilities with the win rate calculator.
For sales leaders: How to improve sales forecast accuracy, Sales pipeline management, Sales QBR.
A stage is a guess without the call notes
Deal stages are only as good as the notes from the last call. ParrotNotes records the call on your phone and writes the summary and next steps, so the stage you pick has something behind it.
Get ParrotNotes freeRelated tools
- Win Rate CalculatorGet your win rate and close rate from deals won, lost and open, and see what a few more points are worth in revenue.Open the tool
- Quota Attainment and OTE CalculatorSee your quota attainment, where your current pace ends the period and what it means for on-target earnings.Open the tool
- Sales Velocity CalculatorTurn opportunities, win rate, deal value and cycle length into revenue per day, and see which lever moves it most.Open the tool
- Commission CalculatorWork out sales commission at a flat rate, on a tiered plan applied bracket by bracket, or split with a team, with monthly and yearly totals.Open the tool